by Jim Ware
As the television sports announcer Jim McKay once said of a star athlete, "His whole future lies ahead of him." And of course, that's true for all of us. And one of our strongest yearnings is to know what lies ahead. What's around the corner? What's over the horizon?
Those are interesting questions for us as individuals, but they are essential for organizations. Organizations make bets on the future every day. When McDonalds buyers place an order for potatoes and ground beef, they do so on the belief that they know how many orders for Big Macs and fries they'll get next week. When General Motors sets its production quotas for Chevrolet Volts, they are betting on how many cars the dealers will be able to sell a month from now.
However, those two examples are basic, tactical management decisions that depend on sophisticated market demand analysis, complex multivariate equations, and a dose of guesswork. But while that kind of demand forecasting may require massive computing power, it's simple in comparison to the need that senior executives have for understanding the bigger, broader, and more fundamental trends in the economy and society.
Will the economy get better? Or worse? When? How will it affect your company? Will your business thrive or struggle? What's going to happen to health insurance, Medicare, Social Security, climate change, unemployment, average wages? How will terrorism, violent weather, pandemics, and public policy affect your business?
The truth, of course, is that no one can really know the future (in spite of what many pundits try to tell us). It has also been said that "the best way to predict the future is to create it." However, as much as we'd all like to create our own future, that isn't a very realistic option.
[click to continue…]